ASHEVILLE - As Donald Trump heads for Asheville, where the former president will speak Aug. 14 at the Harrah's Cherokee Center's Thomas Wolfe Auditorium, the question on some people's lips is: Why here?
Buncombe County voters have picked Democrats in presidential elections since 2008, often against the red tide of the surrounding region. Buncombe County currently has an all-Democrat commission, and for some, Asheville represents something of a "liberal Shangri-La," as one political scientist put it.
“Asheville may not seem the most natural place for Trump. At the same time, Asheville is in a battleground state, it hits multiple media markets in multiple states and clearly Asheville is going to draw from Western North Carolina in general," said Chris Cooper, a professor of political science and public affairs at Western Carolina University.
"I think a lot of people are scratching their heads, they’re saying, well, Asheville is liberal. Trump is not. Why Asheville? And part of it may just be simple logistics. If you want to hit Western North Carolina, you need a venue that holds thousands of people, and after the assassination attempt, you prefer to be indoors, then you pretty much have one option and one option only, and its Harrah’s Cherokee in the center of the city of Asheville."
Trump also visited in 2016 when he was campaigning against Hillary Clinton, also at the civic center, but in another much larger venue within it, where people were asking similar questions.
The event was tumultuous. A 69-year-old woman was punched by a South Carolina man, according to police. Various libel suits followed. Viral videos circulated in the aftermath — capturing boiling tensions and confrontations with protestors. There were several arrests.
A 'critical' battleground
That's not to say the location isn't strategic, too. North Carolina will play a "critical role" in the presidential election, representing a "must win" for Trump, which Cooper called the "definition of a purple state."
Of all the states that went for Trump in 2020, North Carolina was his narrowest victory — a margin of 1.34%. While Buncombe will almost certainly go to Vice President Kamala Harris, who is leading the Democratic presidential ticket, the rest of WNC is likely to "overwhelmingly" go for Trump, Cooper said.
It's rare for presidential candidates to come to North Carolina west of Charlotte. For someone in Swain County, for example, this is the closest in the state Trump is likely to get.
“It’s about the region, it’s about the state, more than it’s about the city of Asheville and Buncombe County in terms of strategy. In terms of logistics, it’s clearly all about Buncombe and Asheville," Cooper said.
On a local politics Facebook thread, when considering the "why," some commenters have pointed — perhaps jokingly — to Stormy Daniels' Asheville performance schedule for Aug. 16 at the Diana Wortham Theatre. "He wants to upstage her," one commenter quipped.
Ashley Moraguez, UNC Asheville associate professor and co-chair of the political science department, said, similar to Cooper, that while it may be something of a surprise to find Trump headed for the "blue stronghold" of WNC, the move makes strategic sense.
Asheville is the population center of WNC, a region where Trump generally fares well, she pointed out, so it could be a way to attract voters from surrounding counties. At the same time, from 2016 to 2020, the margin for Democratic victory in Buncombe County grew.
“Because the Democrats have grown their support here, or grown their turnout here, I think it makes sense for Trump to come here to try to counter that," Moraguez said. "And I think that’s especially the case because now that Kamala Harris is the candidate … the gap in the polls is closing (in North Carolina). She’s making the state a little bit more competitive.”
NPR reported last week that Trump's leads in the "Sun Belt" states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada have been sliced in half since Harris got into the race, both "because of the increased Democratic enthusiasm and her appeal to younger and nonwhite voters."
'Preach to the converted'
In Trump's announcement of his Asheville visit, it said he would "deliver remarks on the economic hardships created by the Harris-Biden Administration."
But as far as the actual contents of his address, Cooper said "Trump's not exactly known for staying on message."
What he does expect is that Trump will "preach to the converted."
He's a "mobilizing candidate" rather than a "persuasion" one, Cooper said. Rather than coax swing voters to his side, Trump is more likely to double down, and try to light a fire under his supporters to not just wear the MAGA hat, but to show up at the polls and bring their friends.
“I expect to see very much mobilization, not any sort of moderation," Cooper said.
A case could be made for Trump courting unaffiliated voters, Moraguez said, but as far as messaging goes, “at the end of the day, this election will probably be decided less by persuading unaffiliated or undecided voters and more by a turnout game ... He can do both. He can try to appeal to those undecided and unaffiliated voters, while also exciting and mobilizing his base."
She said the focus on economic issues also "makes strategic sense for either candidate in this context."
"We know that voters are saying, based on national polls, that the economy is the No. 1 issue, or at least one of the top issues for most voters, and there is a really high cost of living in Asheville and Buncombe County … I think that could resonate with a lot of voters," she said.
Michael Bitzer, a professor of politics and history at Catawba College in Salisbury, said that in North Carolina, it is a "battle of turnout and mobilization."
"It sounds like his campaign strategy and his campaign messaging is still very much tied to the past," Bitzer said. "Making the argument that that he actually won in 2020, that all these prosecutions against him are really against you, my supporters. If you kind of listen to the new ad that has come out from him ... it is still very much a campaign focused on anger, focused on grievance, and if he does continue down this pathway, I think that that’s probably going to be the major message, yet again.”
Local party heads weigh in
Leslie Carey, chair of the Henderson County Democratic Party, said she didn't have much reaction to the announcement of Trump's visit.
“I think he’s old news," she said. "I think Harris and Walz is the way forward and that’s what I’m putting my energy and focus on.”
Since Harris was tapped by President Joe Biden for the 2024 presidential race Carey said there's been a surge of excitement and enthusiasm from within the WNC democratic party.
“The people of Western North Carolina have been carrying the burden (of Trump’s policies)," Carey said. “That is the Republican stronghold that caused that. Not Trump alone, but also our local representatives.”
Doug Brown, Buncombe County GOP chair, said, "I expect respect and peace for the freedom of speech and the right to assemble."
"The Buncombe GOP focuses on local solutions for local issues for local people," he said. "I am grateful that the Republican presidential candidate will take the time to visit Buncombe County."
Buncombe County Democratic Party Chair Kathie Kline also briefly weighed in.
"We welcome everyone to Asheville, even people with whom we vehemently disagree and believe could destroy the democracy we enjoy today," she said.
More:Biden exit: Western NC Democrats back Harris and Gov. Cooper or Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly
More:Harris picks Walz for VP over Shapiro, Kelly, others; Why did NC Gov. Roy Cooper bow out?
Sarah Honosky is the city government reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. News Tips? Email shonosky@citizentimes.com or message on X, formerly Twitter, at @slhonosky. Please support local, daily journalism with asubscriptionto the Citizen Times.
